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Top stories

Sanders and Warren Rally Midwestern Crowds in Progressive Push Toward 2026

Sanders and Warren Rally Midwestern Crowds in Progressive Push Toward 2026

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Progressive Democrats

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 1

Apr 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13837

OptionProbability

Eunisses Hernandez (incumbent)

Lou Calanche

Nelson Grande

Sylvia Robledo

Raul Claros

Elaine Alaniz

Jesus Jesse Rosas

Jesse Rojas

Joseph Lucey

Rosa Requeno

Annalee Harr

Other

44

15

13

12

10

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20%chance

132932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

87.98%chance

152342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2705

370

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101124

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Cameron Kasky

Other

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

76

21

1

1

0

0

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Dec 28, 5:47 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

3525

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

81

65

63

56

47

19

Who will win a majority in Taiwan's parliament in the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 23, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4201

OptionProbability

中國國民黨 (Kuomintang, KMT)

民主進步黨 (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP)

台灣民眾黨 (Taiwan People's Party, TPP)

76

14

7

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?

Dec 21, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

491

OptionProbability

Other

No endorsement before April 30 2028

Ro Khanna

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez

Gavin Newsom

31

26

21

14

9

Who will win the 2026 Dublin Central by-election?

Dec 19, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

288

OptionProbability

Ray McAdam (Fine Gael)

Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin)

Séamas McGrattan (Sinn Féin)

Daniel Ennis (Social Democrats)

Mary Fitzpatrick (Fianna Fáil)

Gerry Hutch (Independent)

Malachy Steenson (Independent)

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit)

Other

24

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 13

Apr 13, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Hugo Soto-Martinez (incumbent)

Other

Colter Carlisle

55

28

18

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