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Prediction markets for Project Rise

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

15495576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6005

3911

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

2818339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2112

474

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.63%chance

305094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

956

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.88%chance

474636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

918

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

253677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

Apr 26, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.95%chance

10397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

Jan 25, 8:53 PMJan 26, 5:59 AM

2207

OptionProbability

10 - 12.99%

13 - 15.99%

7 - 9.99%

16 - 20%

4 - 6.99%

Above 20%

Below 4%

22

22

17

13

10

9

6

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will global carbon emissions from all sources peak before 2030?

Mar 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2035?

Dec 19, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.34%chance

448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

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