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Prediction markets for Project Rise

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.2%chance

14590456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6961

3818

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.73%chance

2517642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.63%chance

305094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

956

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.88%chance

474636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

918

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

10997

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

56

32

7

2

2

2

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

26.25%chance

24984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

157

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.55%chance

18652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

Apr 26, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.95%chance

10397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

48.19%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

6157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.51%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2035?

Dec 19, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.34%chance

448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

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