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Prediction markets for Project Rise

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

15595688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5993

3912

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.4%chance

4122857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

844

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.95%chance

315194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.11%chance

504861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

894

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.39%chance

41059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11043

8814

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

Apr 26, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.95%chance

10397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.26%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.66%chance

7250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will global carbon emissions from all sources peak before 2030?

Mar 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

7161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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