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Prediction markets for Project Rise

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

15595688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5993

3912

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

4724076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.95%chance

315194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.11%chance

504861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

894

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

Jan 25, 8:53 PMJan 26, 5:59 AM

41246

OptionProbability

Below 4%

4 - 6.99%

7 - 9.99%

10 - 12.99%

13 - 15.99%

16 - 20%

Above 20%

27

27

27

14

2

1

1

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101181

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

85

8

3

1

1

1

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.04%chance

7350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will global carbon emissions from all sources peak before 2030?

Mar 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

7161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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