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Prediction markets for Project Rise

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

15595688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5993

3912

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

3720977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

961

Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?

Nov 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.95%chance

315194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?

Nov 2, 12:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.11%chance

504861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

894

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.24%chance

323973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

Jan 25, 8:53 PMJan 26, 5:59 AM

41246

OptionProbability

Below 4%

4 - 6.99%

7 - 9.99%

10 - 12.99%

13 - 15.99%

16 - 20%

Above 20%

27

27

27

14

2

1

1

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.4%chance

8119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2035?

Dec 19, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.92%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

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