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Prediction markets for Projects

EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:16 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

9131287

OptionProbability

9 - 10.59%

10.6 - 12.89%

7.0 - 8.99%

0 - 6.99%

12.9 - 100%

31

25

24

11

9

EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:10 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

584484

OptionProbability

11.8 - 13.74 %

10 - 11.79 %

13.75 - 16 %

8 - 9.99 %

Other

5 - 7.99 %

38

22

17

11

9

3

Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?

Nov 19, 6:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.57%chance

8416491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3073

325

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

66.35%chance

2911708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

591

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29220

OptionProbability

75.8 - 77.79 %

74 - 75.79 %

71 - 73.99 %

77.8 - 79.99 %

Other

80 - 82.99 %

29

27

15

14

10

5

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

EIA projection for U.S. PHEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:41 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

14700

OptionProbability

2.00 - 2.49%

1.5 - 1.99%

0 - 1.49%

2.5 - 3.19%

3.2 - 100%

39

24

15

15

7

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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