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Prediction markets for Projects

Will Kamoa-Kakula Project 95 be fully commissioned by 2026-12-31?

Apr 7, 1:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

78.03%chance

1448589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18367

5833

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will Project Hail Mary be nominated for Best Picture?

Apr 4, 5:33 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

76%chance

1008337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

742

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

Will the Stargate project work?

Jan 22, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.66%chance

121730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

875

Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?

Jan 10, 7:14 AMJan 1, 7:13 AM

39.07%chance

141203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5646

4071

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Who will be the king of the ile Orléans bridge project

Aug 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 9:17 PM

00

OptionProbability

Daniel Perron

Étienne Lemieux

Stéphane Vachon

33

33

33

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