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Prediction markets for Promise AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.23%chance

471686687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17407

10222

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

74.53%chance

13560483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1711

585

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.58%chance

265640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2523

396

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.97%chance

592547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

1851

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

392423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

733

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.16%chance

20636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

943

Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?

Nov 30, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.41%chance

18516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

801

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.93%chance

23426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

907

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

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