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Prediction markets for Proof

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

66.01%chance

12598836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

702

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2818474

OptionProbability

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

<10%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

33

17

14

13

8

6

4

3

2

2

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.46%chance

1617922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6674

5416

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

79.55%chance

496620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1756

659

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

28.28%chance

291131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

647

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

19759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

964

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

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