Propel News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2970192

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?

Feb 10, 8:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5624456

OptionProbability

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?

Jul 27, 6:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.56%chance

277243

OptionVotes

YES

6505

565

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

YES

1016

919

Will a commercial propellant depot exist in orbit by 2030?

Feb 18, 11:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.74%chance

304328

OptionVotes

YES

1546

688

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Jan 11, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

184089

OptionProbability

Pez Dispenser

Tanker

Propellant Depot

Human Landing System (HLS)

Chomper

Other

Mars Cargo

Mars Crew

100

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

202129

OptionVotes

YES

5675

3743

Will Exodus Propulsion Technologies propellantless propulsion work in space?

Apr 28, 8:23 AMMay 28, 10:59 PM

20.57%chance

61752

OptionVotes

YES

193

Does Exodus Propulsion's propellantless drive work?

Apr 28, 9:34 PMMay 1, 11:59 AM

13.3%chance

121701

OptionVotes

YES

257

191

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7739

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

Will a commercial propellant depot exist in orbit by 2060?

Feb 13, 11:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

89.89%chance

7284

OptionVotes

YES

314

107

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

Aug 27, 6:19 AMSep 26, 5:54 AM

8231

OptionProbability

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture

Too much oxygen and methane mixing in an enclosed space and igniting. Clogged pipes and or solid lumps of oxygen or methane being involved in causing those excessive quantities

A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area

A Starlink simulator struck the outer flap area

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?

Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Will a commercial propellant depot exist in orbit by 2030?

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will Exodus Propulsion Technologies propellantless propulsion work in space?

Does Exodus Propulsion's propellantless drive work?

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Will a commercial propellant depot exist in orbit by 2060?

What happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]

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