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Prediction markets for Protect AI

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?

Nov 19, 5:04 AMNov 19, 5:01 AM

37.2%chance

424179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

669

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.96%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2850

351

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.32%chance

71152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

828

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Jun 6, 5:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.43%chance

15890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.69%chance

10668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

755

Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Feb 4, 2:30 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

41.7%chance

5385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

77.92%chance

899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

103

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