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Prediction markets for Provenance

Will it be proven that MH370 was teleported by UFOs before 2030?

Aug 8, 1:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.78%chance

3922430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

79

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

Apr 7, 5:35 PMApr 15, 4:59 AM

2.84%chance

567545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3065

849

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM

6.57%chance

176375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3772

265

Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true?

Jul 3, 3:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.55%chance

514536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

954

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3239

689

Will Ag-doped lead-oxide be proven to be superconductive at room temperature by 2027?

Aug 5, 3:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.39%chance

212601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2842

836

Glyphosate (Roundup) will be proven to reduce testosterone by interfering with the gut biome by 2030.

Jul 31, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.33%chance

302419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

744

Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?

Jul 2, 9:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

81955

OptionProbability

BB(3,3)

BB(2,5)

BB(6)

75

19

5

Will the baldness cure paper be proven correct ?

Oct 27, 6:28 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

31.96%chance

71650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

685

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

28.28%chance

291131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

647

Will telepathy, to the extent of discussed in "The Telepathy Tapes" be proven or have concrete examples by the year 2040

Jan 13, 3:47 AMJan 2, 3:59 AM

5.91%chance

81055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033?

Jan 18, 5:14 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.25%chance

12812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

940

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