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Prediction markets for Providence

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?

Jan 16, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.57%chance

207800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

458

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

46.04%chance

476191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

924

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.4%chance

143906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2794

1556

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

Jun 21, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.37%chance

153230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

506

Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.14%chance

381249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1362

880

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.92%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

463

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

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