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Prediction markets for Providence Foundation

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.96%chance

11227617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

1184

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.34%chance

302958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

689

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

65

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.53%chance

14263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

952

Isaac Newton stock

Nov 13, 4:59 PM

552

OptionProbability

NO

YES

132

76

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