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Providence Foundation News

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.17%chance

334634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

620

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

184256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.38%chance

242326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.

Aug 18, 8:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6%chance

17441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.53%chance

14263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

952

Will I (Student at UC Irvine) Win the Barry Goldwater Fellowship before I graduate

Jun 16, 6:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.53%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

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