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Prediction markets for Public

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51137099

OptionProbability

>$25B

$20.1-25B

$12.6-15B

$15.1-17.5B

$17.6-20B

<$5B

$5-10B

$10.1-12.5B

93

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?

Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.21%chance

293121424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16528

7039

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6763832

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

98

96

94

0

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40.59%chance

24619183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2734

1697

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

26.71%chance

1210988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16566

6037

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.13%chance

795708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

1369

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

54775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13335

7499

First year the US has a public drone light show with 10,000+ drones?

Sep 7, 6:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133616

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028+

2025

33

31

20

16

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.86%chance

361150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2183

1893

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.08%chance

10197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3549

3333

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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