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Prediction markets for Public

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5131809

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

SpaceXAi

Microsoft

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

62

14

14

13

12

10

6

6

6

5

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90%chance

13227405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2397

846

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Aug 31, 12:01 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

88.48%chance

278239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2771

361

Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20%chance

616740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

548

334

Will a sitting president smoke weed publicly before the end of 2037?

Mar 14, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.52%chance

374888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2551

1721

Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public?

Jul 10, 3:18 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

244443

OptionProbability

In hiding from US/Israeli assassination

Other serious injuries make him unable or unwilling to appear in public

Other

Dead

Not conscious: in a coma, etc

He's a puppet/figurehead who can't be trusted to give any statements

51

29

7

6

3

3

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.89%chance

361151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

1894

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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