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Prediction markets for Public

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

2730466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

29302

3425

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.49%chance

817268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3447

526

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

756035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2176

1183

Will a sitting president smoke weed publicly before the end of 2037?

Mar 14, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.52%chance

374888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2551

1721

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

502900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

1289

Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)

Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.89%chance

361151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2180

1894

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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