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Prediction markets for Public Advocate

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.1%chance

133409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.24%chance

273149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2455

407

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

91421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2375

421

Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

9531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

33

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.52%chance

26431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

If Democrats win the 2026 Midterms will Republicans contest or deny the results?

Jan 12, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.89%chance

7270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will Claudia Sheinbaum publicly advocate for Solar Geoengineering during her term as president of Mexico?

Oct 22, 10:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

56.25%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

85

75

65

58

34

Will a 500k+ Chinese KOL get a publicly disclosed admin fine for posting professional content without credentials?

Dec 17, 7:26 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

80%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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