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Prediction markets for Public Advocate

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will a self-described 'democratic socialist' win the US presidential election in 2028?

Jul 6, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.33%chance

263140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

409

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

122555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

511

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

91421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2375

421

Is David Wallace wrong about decoherence and branching in quantum physics?

Jul 14, 7:47 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

51.4%chance

7306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will Claudia Sheinbaum publicly advocate for Solar Geoengineering during her term as president of Mexico?

Oct 22, 10:49 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

56.25%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

85

75

65

58

34

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