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Prediction markets for Public Assistance

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

19838053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

827

Did Ozzy Osbourne die via assisted euthanasia?

Jul 22, 7:38 PMJul 22, 7:32 PM

16.37%chance

8513064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2261

442

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.75%chance

4910166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

911

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

26.41%chance

576479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

515

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.6%chance

363240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

808

Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?

Mar 28, 9:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.64%chance

391771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

824

Will Ousmane Dembele win the Ballon D'Or ?

Jul 15, 2:27 PMSep 22, 2:26 PM

79.95%chance

91005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1997

501

Will a technology exist by 2030 that will cure insomnia?

Dec 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.02%chance

28736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

808

Will there be a publicly livestreamed legally assisted suicide by the end of 2030?

Mar 5, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.45%chance

658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

164

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

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