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Prediction markets for Public Distribution System
Prediction markets for Public Distribution System
Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?
Mar 15, 7:37 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
3.81%
chance
15
1042
Option
Votes
YES
NO
503
20
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%
chance
7
487
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1319
797
Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
Jan 3, 2:39 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
70.9%
chance
9
288
Option
Votes
NO
YES
156
64
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?
Jun 3, 1:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
44%
chance
7
276
Option
Votes
NO
YES
524
438
Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?
Aug 8, 9:03 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
62.65%
chance
4
50
Option
Votes
NO
YES
130
77
Cosmic dipole anomaly reportedly confirmed at 5-sigma by Euclid data by EOY 2030?
Aug 21, 11:06 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
59.02%
chance
3
26
Option
Votes
NO
YES
120
83
If ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
Sep 6, 10:25 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
15.99%
chance
1
9
Option
Votes
NO
YES
107
29
If <8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
Sep 6, 10:25 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
5%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
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