Public Knowledge News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

17782

9207

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

227113753

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14792075

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

7879649

OptionVotes

YES

1007

964

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.15%chance

16150732

OptionVotes

YES

10883

1997

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.05%chance

6120998

OptionVotes

YES

979

968

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.26%chance

6218979

OptionVotes

YES

1031

904

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

466093

OptionVotes

YES

2722

682

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

515944

OptionProbability

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

Aliens

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Public Knowledge News

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

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