Public Knowledge News

YES

NO

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,300 - 1,449

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

YES

YES

YES

YES

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

YES

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

NO

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

Extraterrestrial life.

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard athiest physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

New fundamental science discovery.

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Artificial intelligence.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Entities from a traditional Abrahamic religion.