Public Knowledge News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

503720483

OptionVotes

YES

16293

14198

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71.01%chance

271139584

OptionVotes

YES

1566

640

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171115316

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.65%chance

7020836

OptionVotes

YES

1408

827

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

16.27%chance

7319154

OptionVotes

YES

1565

831

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.87%chance

607044

OptionVotes

YES

1316

808

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

Dec 12, 6:34 PMDec 31, 6:34 PM

73%chance

144622

OptionVotes

YES

1644

608

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

YES

1297

771

If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]

Sep 2, 12:05 PMJan 2, 2:33 AM

91147

OptionProbability

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

Extraterrestrial life.

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard atheist physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

New fundamental science discovery.

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Artificial intelligence.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Time travel.

Entities from a traditional Abrahamic religion.

Public Knowledge News

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Prediction markets for Public Knowledge

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]

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