Public Relations News

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Dec 10, 1:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.05%chance

344305248

OptionVotes

YES

11490

742

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.05%chance

292197779

OptionVotes

YES

3066

829

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

14.92%chance

279136805

OptionVotes

YES

1702

887

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

276104238

OptionVotes

YES

1245

1149

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1%chance

387936

OptionVotes

YES

2753

1145

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

54932

OptionVotes

YES

13437

7442

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Jan 27, 3:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

15.95%chance

104054

OptionVotes

YES

2425

150

Google props

Oct 23, 8:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133995

OptionProbability

Gemini 3 released in November

Share value reaches $300 in 2025

Google Search significant overhaul in 2025

Google Skills AI program launched in 2025

Genie related product released to public before 2027

Imagen 5 released in 2026

Veo 4 released in 2025

100

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121409

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

17.59%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

216

Public Relations News

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Google props

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

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