Public Relations News

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.55%chance

183788873

OptionVotes

YES

185348

53952

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

29%chance

348176669

OptionVotes

YES

1098

904

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

9.94%chance

1131643

OptionVotes

YES

45002

4770

Google props

Oct 23, 8:32 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

145417

OptionProbability

Gemini 3 released in November

Share value reaches $300 in 2025

Genie related product released to public before 2027

Google Search significant overhaul in 2025

Google Skills AI program launched in 2025

Imagen 5 released in 2026

Veo 4 released in 2025

100

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

151806

OptionProbability

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

AI-related cyberattack

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

Major AI safety incident or accident

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

51.59%chance

71364

OptionVotes

YES

10323

9687

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.22%chance

41124

OptionVotes

YES

10045

9959

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Oct 19, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Will the final S-1 confirm that the co-founders retain 50.1% or more of the collective voting power?

Will Anthropic release October 2026 ARR or revenue figures before their stock publicly trades?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade >5% higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will the S-1 reveal that Anthropic's revenue is concentrated, in that 2 customers account for >20% of their latest run-rate revenue?

100

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

12.34%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

266

Will Daniel Lord publicly state that he is in a romantic relationship before January 1, 2027?

Aug 20, 8:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.28%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

112

Group relative rewards in RL (e.g. GRPO) teaches AIs to be spiteful, in publication by EOY 2027.

Sep 27, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

128

Public Relations News

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Prediction markets for Public Relations

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Google props

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Will Daniel Lord publicly state that he is in a romantic relationship before January 1, 2027?

Group relative rewards in RL (e.g. GRPO) teaches AIs to be spiteful, in publication by EOY 2027.

Latest stories