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Top stories

Tokyo Police and Prosecutors Apologize to Family of Shizuo Aijima, Wrongfully Detained Ohkawara Adviser Who Died of Stomach Cancer

Tokyo Police and Prosecutors Apologize to Family of Shizuo Aijima, Wrongfully Detained Ohkawara Adviser Who Died of Stomach Cancer

Authors

20

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Public Security Department

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good?

Jul 5, 3:01 AMJul 1, 3:00 AM

5.93%chance

228521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3981

251

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?

Apr 27, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:27 AM

23.35%chance

181074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.73%chance

12716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will Anthony Fauci go to prison before 2029?

Sep 19, 3:09 AMDec 31, 10:00 AM

8.01%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

93

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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