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Top stories

Tokyo Police and Prosecutors Apologize to Family of Shizuo Aijima, Wrongfully Detained Ohkawara Adviser Who Died of Stomach Cancer

Tokyo Police and Prosecutors Apologize to Family of Shizuo Aijima, Wrongfully Detained Ohkawara Adviser Who Died of Stomach Cancer

Authors

20

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Public Security Department

US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?

Aug 23, 12:09 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5.04%chance

168052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4379

232

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?

Feb 11, 6:35 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

28.72%chance

224761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

635

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?

Apr 27, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:27 AM

17.15%chance

16959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will Donald Trump announce a new cabinet member before 1 July 2026?

Mar 13, 11:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

95.66%chance

15957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

470

21

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11877

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

71

38

0

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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