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Top stories

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Public Security

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

11.2%chance

12744195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

345

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

7034065

OptionProbability

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

52

37

10

1

0

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.84%chance

1717830

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16831

5963

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

487893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7320

2094

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.12%chance

113641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11967

8356

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

41.18%chance

292620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

During the Super Bowl, will Trump whine about Bad Bunny like a pathetic little bitch?

Feb 3, 9:47 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

75.05%chance

371957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1734

577

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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