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Top stories

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Public Security

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

10975946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23112

2751

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15062

6649

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

226652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12736

7852

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216492

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Q4 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

24

20

20

10

10

7

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

30.35%chance

155038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

294388

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Algorithmica

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

73

14

5

4

4

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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