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Top stories

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Authors

4

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Public Security

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

8.31%chance

13446992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3506

290

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

7745507

OptionProbability

Democrats Sweep

R Senate, D House

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

48

40

11

0

0

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.6%chance

2019659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18647

5382

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.84%chance

528586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6672

2629

Will there be a public assasination attempt on Elon Musk by EOY 2027

Feb 7, 11:43 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

21.15%chance

547944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1931

518

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Mar 20, 3:17 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

161886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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