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Top stories

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Authors

4

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Public Security

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

23.45%chance

12639656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

548

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.58%chance

7634311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

5723659

OptionProbability

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

54

27

18

1

1

Will there be a public assasination attempt on Elon Musk by EOY 2027

Feb 7, 11:43 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

27.83%chance

537639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1610

621

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

54775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13335

7499

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

6982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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