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Top stories

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Genaro García Luna Granted 90-Day Extension to Appeal 38-Year Sentence Amid Weight Loss, Hygiene Denial, and Isolation Claims

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Public Security

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

18994023

OptionProbability

Democrats Sweep

R Senate, D House

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

64

27

8

1

0

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.7%chance

10969862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17496

3081

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Aug 19, 3:17 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

27.33%chance

14610416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?

Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM

23.32%chance

154740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

172227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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