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Prediction markets for Public Service

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?

Jan 16, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

579291019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1422

158

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

19838053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

827

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

7233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Dec 17, 4:02 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

5011008

OptionProbability

Department of Education

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

Federal Statistical Agencies

Freddie Mac

National Weather Service

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Internal Revenue Service

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

National Institutes of Health

Ginnie Mae

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

National Park Service (NPS)

Fannie Mae

Small Business Administration

Federal Bureau of Investigations

The Supreme Court

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

US Postal Service

Amtrak

100

22

21

21

21

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

18

17

17

16

15

14

13

7

4

1

1

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.11%chance

724702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

1253

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.4%chance

143906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2794

1556

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

38.73%chance

192588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

1965

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.77%chance

251785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

433

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025?

Oct 29, 8:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.63%chance

6155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

51

Will a new fighter jet enter service (publicly) in the United States armed forces before 2030

Jan 28, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.9%chance

3130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

43

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