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Prediction markets for Public Storage

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

34

25

21

7

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Jan 9, 4:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6362

OptionProbability

Later than 2059 or never (question will close in 2060)

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2059

2024-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

71

6

5

5

5

2

2

2

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin?

Feb 6, 8:21 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

61.74%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

81

Will nuclear waste be stored at Yucca Mountain in 2050?

Sep 13, 4:33 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

45.77%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

78

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

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