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Prediction markets for Python

Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?

Nov 26, 12:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3.92%chance

364278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2791

841

Will Python be replaced as the go-to programming language for AI development by the end of 2040?

Jan 5, 8:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.68%chance

463528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1811

685

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2026

May 5, 2:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.74%chance

162116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2329

885

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

May 5, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.45%chance

18724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

888

When will Python lose the first position on TIOBE Index leaderboard?

Mar 18, 11:44 AMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

14712

OptionProbability

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

50

50

46

41

32

19

0

0

When will Python 3.13 readiness reach 75%?

May 13, 7:36 PMMay 13, 7:34 PM

3580

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before July 2027

Before July 2026

Before January 2027

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

94

76

66

66

1

1

Will Python remain a leading language until 2028 with or without the GIL?

Jan 16, 10:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12440

OptionProbability

If Python removes the GIL; Python remains leading language

If Python keeps the GIL; Python remains leading language

85

85

Astral maintains uv Python package manager for free through 2027?

Oct 31, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

4218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

When will Python development tool uv overtake Poetry in JetBrains surveys?

Nov 20, 11:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

2130

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Later or never

2024

17

17

17

17

17

15

In January 2028, will Polars have supplanted Pandas for Python data frames? (More monthly downloads)

Feb 3, 3:33 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

17.81%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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