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Prediction markets for Q4

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3732995

OptionProbability

Q1

Q3

Q4

Q2

100

30

30

2

United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?

Jan 21, 11:59 PMMar 27, 10:59 AM

11.9%chance

4814089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2721

367

US effective tariff rate in Q4 2025?

Apr 21, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

394682

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

Oct 11, 6:30 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

40.22%chance

453675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

828

Will the "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market trading volume exceed M$10 million before Q4, 2025?

Jan 11, 11:09 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

37.52%chance

61410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will AI wipe out humanity before Q4 2025

Sep 5, 1:50 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

1.08%chance

121319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

149

Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025?

Mar 22, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.79%chance

141197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1891

832

Will the US’s public debt exceed 125% of its GDP by Q4 2025?

Jan 27, 6:17 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

58.5%chance

9660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

694

Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?

Apr 7, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

492

20

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

39.9%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025?

Jul 2, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.18%chance

890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

137

Discord monthly active usership <100M Q4 2029?

Apr 29, 1:51 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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