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OptionProbability
Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours
Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days
Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days
Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck
The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days
>= 10 American soldiers are killed
A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days
Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days
Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days
Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel
Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed
Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader
Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
100+ civilian deaths in Israel
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours
Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
80
63
50
37
30
29
28
27
26
21
14
11
3
1
0
0