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Prediction markets for QIA

Li Qiang stock (permanent)

Mar 27, 6:25 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

171728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

475

197

Will Qiaochu Yuan and AellaGirl make love?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

942

Will a biography of Qiaochu Yuan be written by EOY 2027 (with the help of AI)?

Nov 10, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.36%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

61

Will Qiaochu Yuan attend Vibecamp 2026?

Jul 5, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.76%chance

339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will any of {Joscha Bach, Qiaochu Yuan, Alexey Guzey, Jose Luis Ricon} come to accept the divinity of Jesus Christ?

Jul 24, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will a magical manic pixie dream girl arrive to save qiaochu yuan by 2029?

Oct 5, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Qiaochu Yuan stay NEET through EOY 2026?

Dec 23, 7:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029

Jun 11, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028

Jun 11, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, or Qiaochu Yuan make it into the guinness book of world records for anythingby2060

Jul 23, 7:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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