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Prediction markets for QIA

Will Qiaochu Yuan and AellaGirl make love?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

942

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, Malcolm Ocean, Joscha Bach, and Qiaochu Yuan all circle with each other?

Jul 23, 9:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.49%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Will a biography of Qiaochu Yuan be written by EOY 2027 (with the help of AI)?

Nov 10, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.36%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

61

Will Qiaochu Yuan do 5-MeO-DMT by EOY 2028?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.01%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

65

Will Qiaochu Yuan have kids by 2030?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.45%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

112

Will Qiaochu Yuan attend Vibecamp 2026?

Jul 5, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.76%chance

339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will a magical manic pixie dream girl arrive to save qiaochu yuan by 2029?

Oct 5, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Jose Luis Ricon and Qiaochu Yuan both successfully finish the Oregon Trail together before they die?

Aug 11, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

55

If Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!) were to face off Qiaochu Yuan in a cagematch/fight/duel, WOULD HE WIN?

May 2, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028

Jun 11, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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