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Prediction markets for QIA

Will Qiaochu Yuan and AellaGirl make love?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

942

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Are Qiaochu Yuan and Alexey Guzey the SAME PERSON? #OpenIndividualism

Sep 18, 2:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.76%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Rochelle Shen and Qiaochu yuan end up in a relationship

Aug 13, 5:07 AMAug 14, 6:59 AM

27.11%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will qiaochu yuan become a comedian

Jul 19, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will a biography of Qiaochu Yuan be written by EOY 2027 (with the help of AI)?

Nov 10, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.36%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

61

Will Qiaochu Yuan get a job for a period of time lasting more than 4 months by 2030?

Apr 29, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.75%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

96

Will Qiaochu Yuan attend Vibecamp 2026?

Jul 5, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.76%chance

339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will Qiaochu Yuan have at least one kiss in 2025?

Jan 4, 5:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028

Jun 11, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029

Jun 11, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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