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Prediction markets for QIA

Li Qiang stock (permanent)

Mar 27, 6:25 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

171728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

475

197

Will Qiaochu Yuan and AellaGirl make love?

Jan 7, 9:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

942

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Are Qiaochu Yuan and Alexey Guzey the SAME PERSON? #OpenIndividualism

Sep 18, 2:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.76%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, Malcolm Ocean, Joscha Bach, and Qiaochu Yuan all circle with each other?

Jul 23, 9:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.49%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Will any of {Joscha Bach, Qiaochu Yuan, Alexey Guzey, Jose Luis Ricon} come to accept the divinity of Jesus Christ?

Jul 24, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Qiaochu Yuan stay NEET through EOY 2026?

Dec 23, 7:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

Nov 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029

Jun 11, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Fanfic of dante Divine comedy featuring aellagirl, Alex Zhu, repligate, qiaochu yuan, yacine, and basedbeffjezos by 2028

Jun 11, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will either Qiaochu Yuan or Alexey Guzey get SAINT/accelerated TMS/tFUS by EOY 2027?

Sep 26, 7:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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