Qualified Digital News

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

8211323

OptionVotes

YES

1433

1170

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.1%chance

133409

OptionVotes

YES

1126

888

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.39%chance

133336

OptionVotes

YES

1588

630

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

YES

1334

367

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

340

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

2030

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

179

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

188

How hard will it be to import my prereqs into the California Community Colleges system given my graduate degree?

Jul 26, 5:10 PMAug 25, 5:08 PM

497

OptionProbability

Convincing the system about pre-reqs will be left up to the instructor.

The system will automatically import all my stuff.

I will have to find my old class records and course codes and feed them into the system.

I will have to request an official transcript from college and possibly pay money for it.

The system will let me eyeball what classes I've taken without forcing me to dig up my old records.

I will have to talk to a human on the phone.

Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Aug 8, 7:46 AMMar 14, 2:00 AM

37.6%chance

659

OptionVotes

YES

129

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.23%chance

338

OptionVotes

YES

122

Qualified Digital News

Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

How hard will it be to import my prereqs into the California Community Colleges system given my graduate degree?

Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

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