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Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Dec 30, 6:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.41%chance

12222971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

420

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.05%chance

8111213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

1329

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.95%chance

81205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

577

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

25.25%chance

17944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

905

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.18%chance

17752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

101

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2035

2040

2045

Later/never

2030

50

50

50

50

39

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027?

Sep 11, 10:56 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.74%chance

7100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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