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Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.15%chance

8211322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1434

1169

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.39%chance

133336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1588

630

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

122555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

511

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

34.63%chance

181220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

640

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

2030

60

56

50

40

39

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027?

Sep 11, 10:56 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.74%chance

7100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Democratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?

May 20, 6:52 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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