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Prediction markets for Qualified Digital

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

8211323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1433

1170

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.48%chance

143602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

895

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.39%chance

133336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1588

630

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.51%chance

18772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

78

Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Aug 8, 7:46 AMMar 14, 2:00 AM

21%chance

14247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

Oct 19, 1:20 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

25.18%chance

7247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

930

Will it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?

Oct 25, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.13%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027?

Sep 11, 10:56 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.63%chance

10188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

43

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

Jun 19, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

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