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Prediction markets for Quality

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.71%chance

475814557093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22541

18234

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771143313

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2027-2028

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2049-2050

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2026-2027

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2024-2025

2025-2026

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

17

15

13

11

9

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.94%chance

391351512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3411

823

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17445547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629898

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

45

40

35

28

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7528472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.31%chance

9622315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

929

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

70.13%chance

6616146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1532

653

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.85%chance

8413092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

760

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

78%chance

343649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

531

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

78.14%chance

553146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

940

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

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