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Prediction markets for Quality

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

452112383461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27359

17285

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10751133284

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2027-2028

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2026-2027

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

12

10

9

9

8

7

6

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17244365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629822

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

37

35

28

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

6622180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

919

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.54%chance

9322117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

985

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

69.09%chance

472734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

815

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.59%chance

51188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3013

2735

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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