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Prediction markets for Quality

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

461713851271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23331

19183

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771139062

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2049-2050

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2026-2027

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

18

13

11

8

7

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

376297077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2998

926

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17245335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7629831

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

37

35

28

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.02%chance

9522309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

935

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

6415784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.43%chance

7912635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

971

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Sep 23, 7:41 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

77%chance

523091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

956

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.59%chance

51188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3013

2735

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