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Prediction markets for Qualys

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.2%chance

433111801053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26613

17600

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.6%chance

1281859216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533607

18765

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10701123447

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2028-2029

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2026-2027

2027-2028

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

344242238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

1260

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

16940406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1004

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.01%chance

9322087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

955

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

58.98%chance

1815655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11994

8342

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

72.63%chance

5412013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

614

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

6410958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

856

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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