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Prediction markets for Qualys

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.81%chance

419911291967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30365

16144

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10681116329

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2028-2029

2037-2038

2038-2039

2049-2050

2039-2040

2040-2041

2027-2028

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2026-2027

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

9

9

8

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.16%chance

101617496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443922

22556

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

45%chance

231391548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6865

2234

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.37%chance

318218151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

1304

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1135

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

9121514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

718

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

79.5%chance

5311907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

637877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

806

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

53.8%chance

94548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10795

9269

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