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Prediction markets for Qualys

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

387810106198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10833

10539

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10611044849

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

176211853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

288173419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3090

899

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7126846

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

41

40

38

32

20

13

5

1

0

0

0

0

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.21%chance

7122484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

960

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

8720969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

776

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

80.06%chance

4911362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2004

499

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.76%chance

519010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

395

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.25%chance

474078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

1122

Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040?

Nov 1, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.19%chance

12427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

949

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