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Prediction markets for Quantum Computing

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.95%chance

5713454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

712

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

29.91%chance

8412889

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2041

1104

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

65.84%chance

418549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

720

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

Aug 29, 8:02 PMJan 2, 5:21 AM

34.04%chance

485360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

865

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72%chance

414220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1635

331

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.3%chance

332073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

1107

Will the UK government mention quantum computing in an official policy speech within the next month?

Jan 30, 7:09 AMMar 2, 7:04 AM

50.09%chance

362014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

1625

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

181370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

920

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

211212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

968

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

760

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.21%chance

17752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

896

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