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Prediction markets for Quantum Systems

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.91%chance

7112427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

289

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.82%chance

323407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

168

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.33%chance

161319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

874

Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026?

Nov 19, 4:22 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.12%chance

21974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

893

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

73.06%chance

14725

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1645

852

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.24%chance

15677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

959

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

What will be involved in cracking the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 14, 7:28 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

8423

OptionProbability

Quantum computing

New mathematics**

Artificial intelligence*

61

44

25

Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040?

Jul 31, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.6%chance

7418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

376

27

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

5176

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Dark Matter Interaction

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

37

17

14

9

9

7

4

3

What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?

May 1, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

329

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