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Prediction markets for Quantum Systems

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7416646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

853

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

527371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

768

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.38%chance

191406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

906

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

81.64%chance

7986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

858

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

18748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?

May 1, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4529

OptionProbability

1536-1560

384-416

416-448

448-480

480-512

512-544

544-576

576-608

608-640

640-672

672-704

704-736

736-768

768-800

0-32

32-64

64-96

96-128

128-160

160-192

192-224

224-256

256-288

288-320

320-352

352-384

800-832

832-864

864-896

896-928

928-960

960-992

992-1024

1024-1056

1056-1088

1088-1120

1120-1152

1152-1184

1184-1216

1216-1248

1248-1280

1280-1312

1312-1344

1344-1376

1376-1408

1408-1440

1440-1472

1472-1504

1504-1536

81

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

Aug 31, 3:45 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.69%chance

560

OptionProbability

NO

YES

248

135

Will Zurek ever address the 'system problem' for quantum decoherence?

Nov 25, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2030

Before the end of 2026

50

50

50

50

36

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