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Prediction markets for Quantum Systems

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.61%chance

7316505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

929

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72%chance

414220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1635

331

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

191390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

865

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

What will be involved in cracking the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 14, 7:28 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

9473

OptionProbability

Quantum computing

New mathematics**

Artificial intelligence*

61

52

25

Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040?

Jul 31, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.24%chance

8461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

39

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

Company announces commercial room-temperature quantum processing unit (QPU) by EOY2027?

Jul 10, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.63%chance

6378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Will Zurek ever address the 'system problem' for quantum decoherence?

Nov 25, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2030

Before the end of 2026

50

50

50

50

36

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