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Prediction markets for Quarter

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Aug 29, 6:22 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

1.03%chance

287313644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132774

2975

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

47119148

OptionProbability

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

100

1

0

0

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter in 2026 and 2027, 8 in a row?

Jan 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

92463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

11.87%chance

202183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

554

Will an Asian country make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals?

Aug 9, 1:18 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

48.9%chance

151515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

640

Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of 2026?

Jan 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

91223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

943

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:12 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

91176

OptionProbability

April 1 2027, Later, or never

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q4 2026

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q1 2027

2023

Q1 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2024

60

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?

Jan 1, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.75%chance

6944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

779

Will I be (co-)president of Stanford AI Alignment during spring quarter?

Jan 12, 7:14 PMJun 15, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

5275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will NCAA Basketball switch to using Quarters like the NBA does by the end of 2034?

Apr 7, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.55%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

137

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