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Prediction markets for Quarter

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Aug 29, 6:22 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

1.07%chance

290314860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129735

3007

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

50171620

OptionProbability

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

100

2

0

0

Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter?

Jul 7, 6:39 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

347153

OptionProbability

2024-Q4

2025-Q1

2025-Q3

2026-Q2

2026-Q1

2024-Q3

2025-Q2

2025-Q4

100

100

100

68

32

0

0

0

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter in 2026 and 2027, 8 in a row?

Jan 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.79%chance

113727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4458

224

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

11.92%chance

212184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2511

555

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?

Jan 1, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.85%chance

82141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1463

684

Will an Asian country make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals?

Aug 9, 1:18 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

48.9%chance

151515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

640

Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of 2026?

Jan 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.54%chance

101311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

972

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

Will I be (co-)president of Stanford AI Alignment during spring quarter?

Jan 12, 7:14 PMJun 15, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

5275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will NCAA Basketball switch to using Quarters like the NBA does by the end of 2029?

Apr 7, 4:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.91%chance

10199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

188

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