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Prediction markets for RAD

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87%chance

302632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1706

820

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

61549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Quantum computation will not radically change computation by 2100 except in encryption.

Mar 25, 3:43 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.74%chance

321522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

882

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

GTA VI will have Spotify integration for the in-game radio

Nov 20, 9:07 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

12.97%chance

211480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

763

Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?

Jul 28, 1:47 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

22.56%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

957

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Is the "radiation hormesis" hypothesis largely accurate?

Jul 5, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.63%chance

18366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

912

Will New Zealand politics be significantly radicalised in 5 years?

Sep 11, 4:53 PMSep 11, 4:51 PM

40.51%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

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