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Prediction markets for Radia

Will Russia breach a nuclear reactor in Ukraine resulting in a radiation release of >10^-4 chernobyls

Jul 4, 4:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.69%chance

71172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

388

105

Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?

Jul 28, 1:47 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

22.56%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

957

When will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?

Jul 8, 3:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

9840

OptionProbability

It wont be done, or warming will be resolved by other means before it's ever done

2025

2024

2029

2026

2027

2028

2030

2023

28

20

13

12

8

8

8

3

1

Is the "radiation hormesis" hypothesis largely accurate?

Jul 5, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.63%chance

18366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

912

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

Feb 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.44%chance

12212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

171

Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?

Jul 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.04%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

128

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