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Prediction markets for RAG

RagePope Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 5:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

439144794

OptionProbability

YES

NO

5123

2496

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

87.42%chance

231991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2684

386

What will be the German Youth Word of the Year 2026? (67? Du bist gut genug? Ragebait? ...)

Jul 29, 8:05 PMOct 10, 9:59 PM

4976

OptionProbability

67

Crashout

Du bist gut genug

Gute Käse

Peak

Ragebait

Schere

Süper

Digga

Macker

50

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

3

3

Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?

May 8, 11:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

16.84%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

84

Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?

May 9, 1:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

5182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

176

New EmbeddingGemma (or equivalent) based on Gemma 4 in 2026?

Apr 3, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.92%chance

446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

1

Attention + Search + RL = AGI?

Dec 30, 2:13 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.65%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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