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Prediction markets for Range Resources

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

152110

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030-2034

38

17

15

13

9

8

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

75.07%chance

6684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

690

100

How long will it take for the population of South Korea to be cut in half?

Jan 5, 2:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8602

OptionProbability

2080-2089

2090-2099

2070-2079

2100 or later (or never)

2060-2069

2050-2059

2050 or earlier

35

21

16

15

8

4

2

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5445

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2029

2027

2028

2026

2025

28

23

21

20

5

3

What will the inference cost of the best publicly available LM be in 2030?

Mar 3, 1:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6394

OptionProbability

1-10 docs

.1-1 docs

.01-.1 docs

10-100 docs

100-1K docs

Other

.001-.01 docs

1K-10K docs

10K-100K docs

26

23

12

12

12

7

4

2

0

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

190

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.81%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

56

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.69%chance

6123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

79

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

378

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

16

15

15

14

14

14

14

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