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Prediction markets for Ranking

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76166191

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

Google (after 2.5 release)

OpenAI (May or later)

Moonshot

DeepSeek

Anthropic

xAI (April or later)

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

89

21

12

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

Mar 10, 3:02 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

40%chance

10017145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

117

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56%chance

6712154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

512

Biden ranked below Carter in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey

Dec 3, 5:59 PMJul 1, 11:00 PM

73.58%chance

377841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

599

Will Magnus Carlsen, the world chess #1 since 2011, be ranked #1 in 2029.1.1?

Aug 7, 8:30 AMDec 1, 2:59 PM

24.43%chance

423036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

828

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

45%chance

251883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

385

Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

Sep 15, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.77%chance

71150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will I reach 5 digit (<rank 99999) in osu! standard before 2026

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51%chance

7507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

677

Will John Wick 5 be rated at least 7.5 in the IMDB rankings?

Apr 21, 12:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.32%chance

15394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

961

Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?

Sep 20, 6:06 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

39.5%chance

5371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?

Mar 11, 11:47 PMMar 11, 11:59 PM

32%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

909

Will “Vance” rise at least 150 places in the 2025 American baby name rankings?

Nov 10, 4:38 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

51.94%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

962

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