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Rare News

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Which of these rare events will happen in the 2026 Major League Baseball season?

Oct 1, 5:18 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

9819

OptionProbability

Player pitches an immaculate inning

Player pitches a perfect game

Player hits four home runs in a game

Player gets an unassisted triple play

Player hits two grand slams in a game

Player has 3 hits in an inning

100

19

9

9

2

1

Which country will the US sign a rare earths deal with first ?

Mar 4, 12:06 PMFeb 20, 12:59 PM

8378

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

No deal

59

23

18

Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?

Jun 15, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.26%chance

10174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

88

Will any European Country make a transition to an exclusive democracy by 2039 (Rare event market)

Feb 27, 10:06 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65%chance

4145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

924

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.32%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2027?

Mar 31, 4:23 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

16.78%chance

317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

71

Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2026?

Mar 31, 4:22 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

16.52%chance

27

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

41

Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by September 30, 2026?

Mar 31, 4:22 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

12.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

40

Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by June 30, 2027?

Mar 31, 4:23 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

11.93%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

84

Rare Atom [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:49 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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