Rates News

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.71%chance

1291859535

OptionVotes

YES

542100

18471

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.71%chance

4711143855

OptionVotes

YES

11756

7379

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98%chance

68273671

OptionVotes

YES

7005

143

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

16933724

OptionVotes

YES

1370

1246

When will Canada's birth rate exceed India's birth rate?

Dec 9, 10:30 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

610790

OptionProbability

2051-2075

2076-2100

2041-2050

2031-2040

After 2100

Never

2025-2030

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Nov 7, 11:46 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

17.16%chance

497618

OptionVotes

YES

2199

455

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

236807

OptionVotes

YES

15488

6457

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

74625

OptionProbability

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?

Jul 29, 5:46 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

50.46%chance

353451

OptionVotes

YES

1034

1025

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

120

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

Rates News

Prediction markets for Rates

Prediction markets for Rates

Prediction markets for Rates

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

When will Canada's birth rate exceed India's birth rate?

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

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