Ratings News

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.74%chance

4671140701

OptionVotes

YES

11046

8127

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.74%chance

102648702

OptionVotes

YES

474372

21108

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.48%chance

47225860

OptionVotes

YES

4138

242

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

16733175

OptionVotes

YES

1383

1188

When will Canada's birth rate exceed India's birth rate?

Dec 9, 10:30 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

59290

OptionProbability

2051-2075

2076-2100

2041-2050

2031-2040

After 2100

2025-2030

Never

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Nov 7, 11:46 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

16.72%chance

467323

OptionVotes

YES

2234

448

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

226797

OptionVotes

YES

15488

6457

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

63975

OptionProbability

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

Below 94%

97.5% or above

Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?

Jul 29, 5:46 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

58.99%chance

322930

OptionVotes

YES

1229

864

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

120

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

Ratings News

Prediction markets for Ratings

Prediction markets for Ratings

Prediction markets for Ratings

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

When will Canada's birth rate exceed India's birth rate?

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

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