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Prediction markets for Ray

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

937

Ray Dalio stock

Apr 9, 1:02 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

185349

OptionProbability

YES

NO

542

160

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.08%chance

483902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

404

Will I meet a new lover at Ray Kurzweil's funeral by 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 AMMar 3, 5:59 AM

13.5%chance

121072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

931

Will Ray Kurzweil die of natural causes?

Jan 19, 4:57 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.46%chance

14470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

958

Will public health consensus regarding diet/health meaningfully shift toward the theories of Ray Peat before 2030?

Nov 15, 7:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.46%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

424

230

Will the Tampa Bay Rays leave St. Petersburg before 2028?

Jul 13, 1:22 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.65%chance

5141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

65

In what year will Blu-ray be open sourced?

Aug 26, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

OptionProbability

2031-2035

2036-2040

2041-2045

2046+

2026-2030

26

26

21

21

5

Will Sleazy Rider: Part 1 Kayley Gunner, Elly Clutch, Victor Ray, Ken Feels surpass 15,000k views by midnight tonight?

Feb 8, 2:37 PMFeb 9, 11:59 PM

65.91%chance

2109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sell at least 10 million units by December 31, 2026?

Dec 7, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.6%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

Will there be a consensus on the origin of cosmic rays with energies beyond the GZK limit by the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.85%chance

457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

140

What are cosmic rays with energies over 100 EeV made of?

Jun 6, 10:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Hydrogen

Helium

Lithium to neon

Sodium to argon

Potassium to iron

Cobalt to xenon

Cesium or heavier

28

12

12

12

12

12

12

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