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Prediction markets for RC

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will at least three US states use RCV in the 2028 presidential general election?

Jan 21, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.79%chance

272168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1495

590

Will Alaska use RCV in the 2028 presidential general election?

Jan 21, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.03%chance

141399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

567

40

Will a Meld pair make the top 8 of any RC or Pro Tour before 2030?

Jun 24, 10:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.85%chance

51190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

401

25

Will I participate in another MtG Regional Championship before 2027?

Mar 9, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.27%chance

3815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1615

619

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.31%chance

6475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

794

How many cities will adopt RCV via a ballot measure in 2025?

Apr 19, 2:55 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

3468

OptionProbability

1 - 2

3 - 4

5 - 6

7 - 8

9 - 10

Above 10

74

9

8

4

3

3

Will I finish my first RC plane by June 2026?

Nov 27, 6:24 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will Apple release support for editing RCS messages before 2026

Dec 23, 4:13 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

39.83%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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