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Prediction markets for RE

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.19%chance

3725189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

590

Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist before August 2026?

Aug 1, 7:09 AMAug 1, 4:59 AM

8.61%chance

55310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4491

702

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.83%chance

184737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

559

Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election?

Dec 7, 5:59 PMJun 1, 12:59 AM

34.25%chance

583706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

410

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028

Feb 19, 5:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.48%chance

203619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will Javier Milei be re-elected?

Oct 1, 1:30 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

65.09%chance

132343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

732

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58%chance

371341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

785

Will Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 7, 9:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.98%chance

13989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

838

Conditional on the world being a simulation, what is the probability that you're the only conscious entity in it?

Jul 21, 5:03 PMFeb 2, 8:02 PM

17.76%chance

11275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

943

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

976

Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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