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Prediction markets for RE

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.74%chance

4228406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

599

Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist before August 2026?

Aug 1, 7:09 AMAug 1, 4:59 AM

5.95%chance

66387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5241

375

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.83%chance

184737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

559

Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election?

Dec 7, 5:59 PMJun 1, 12:59 AM

34.25%chance

583706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

410

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028

Feb 19, 5:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.48%chance

203619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will Javier Milei be re-elected?

Oct 1, 1:30 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

68.41%chance

172504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

679

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.02%chance

381598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

985

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.58%chance

61426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

519

Will Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 7, 9:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.49%chance

141278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

766

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

976

Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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