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Prediction markets for Reading

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1.88%chance

18141118911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102031

3309

[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.94%chance

531172586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80%chance

11847312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

1027

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

Jun 20, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.42%chance

14024222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7645

1161

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

10111439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

1294

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]

May 31, 2:08 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

8.48%chance

219609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3284

304

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

Apr 10, 4:02 AMApr 10, 4:02 AM

32.54%chance

206271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

700

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.18%chance

955673

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1920

1549

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.43%chance

17981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

906

MLB gets salary cap before next-next season? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Nov 9, 7:48 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

6515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

Sep 21, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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