REAL News

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26%chance

21564623

OptionVotes

YES

1851

458

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13216102

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

More than 6%

Other

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31.36%chance

12114188

OptionVotes

YES

1217

876

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.82%chance

1810663

OptionVotes

YES

18203

5494

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Aug 13, 7:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

3810099

OptionProbability

YES

7781

6334

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Aug 28, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

627701

OptionVotes

YES

1061

814

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

YES

1469

732

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

346935

OptionVotes

YES

5447

184

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Dec 15, 4:17 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

104435

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be less than 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

REAL News

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

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