REAL News

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.21%chance

20659741

OptionVotes

YES

1048

1027

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25.75%chance

10110627

OptionVotes

YES

1137

1078

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

YES

1182

712

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.33%chance

148589

OptionVotes

YES

18471

5414

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1298525

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

1331

1090

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

4447

225

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Dec 15, 4:17 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

94410

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be less than 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

193883

OptionVotes

YES

3559

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

1177

880

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

Nov 4, 12:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

211074

OptionVotes

YES

1306

434

REAL News

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

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