REAL News

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.81%chance

21665360

OptionVotes

YES

2326

331

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13216102

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

More than 6%

Other

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

24.16%chance

12114292

OptionVotes

YES

1149

1113

Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028

Oct 3, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

513052

OptionVotes

YES

23050

4338

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

29.53%chance

1812082

OptionVotes

YES

1545

647

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Aug 28, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.78%chance

648385

OptionVotes

YES

1008

959

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

YES

1469

732

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Dec 15, 4:17 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

104435

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be less than 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

will magic be real before i die

Dec 21, 5:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.9%chance

171322

OptionVotes

YES

1895

223

REAL News

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

will magic be real before i die

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