REAL News

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.83%chance

21262021

OptionVotes

YES

1185

862

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13115926

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

More than 6%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31%chance

12013822

OptionVotes

YES

1212

887

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

30.21%chance

1712057

OptionVotes

YES

1520

658

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.77%chance

1710641

OptionVotes

YES

18181

5500

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

716152

OptionVotes

YES

1174

1160

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

4447

225

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Dec 15, 4:17 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

94410

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

JD Vance, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Gavin Newsom, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Kamala Harris, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Marco Rubio, Real GDP growth will be less than 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Josh Shapiro, Real GDP growth will be LESS than 2.8%

AOC, Real GDP growth will be MORE or EQUAL to 2.8%

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.5%chance

91406

OptionVotes

YES

1618

365

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

REAL News

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Prediction markets for REAL

Prediction markets for REAL

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Who will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

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