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Prediction markets for Real

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.19%chance

52117627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

946

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Sep 13, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.14%chance

21899060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10423

2266

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.04%chance

19655680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

635

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

Jan 22, 7:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.4%chance

4918536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17049

3233

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.23%chance

4017224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21518

5099

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

167337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14113

7510

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1276965

OptionProbability

Between 4% and 6%

Between 2% and 4%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

34

32

16

10

4

4

0

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

716029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

1037

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

785

Will Manifold offer real money betting again before the end of 2025?

Jun 6, 11:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.43%chance

24927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

641

564

Will the EU require virtual currency purchases to display real-money equivalents within a year?

Sep 12, 2:35 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM

21.09%chance

7890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

86

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