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Prediction markets for REAL

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Sep 13, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.21%chance

236229550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9860

2273

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.15%chance

60163934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

945

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.84%chance

20057539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

994

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.85%chance

5923504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23640

4694

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.06%chance

2313941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14715

7254

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

27.86%chance

938710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

967

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1288465

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

33

32

17

11

4

3

0

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75%chance

127439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17321

5773

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1090

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3696

271

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

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