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Prediction markets for Real Vision

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1764796

OptionProbability

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 80%

Above 90%

100

100

33

12

9

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Will US inflation be over 4% for the next 5 years?

Aug 8, 10:45 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1%chance

2521022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9486

686

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Apr 22, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124397

OptionProbability

By the end of 2029

By the end of 2028

By the end of 2027

2030 or later

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

68

63

57

32

9

1

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131937

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

47

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?

May 11, 9:49 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

61.54%chance

451827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

919

Holodeck When?

Jun 3, 6:30 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

81192

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034 or 2035

2036-2040

2024 or 2025

After 2040 or never

18

14

14

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

Will replacement eyes be available by 2050?

May 12, 8:50 AMDec 19, 11:59 PM

82.99%chance

13526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

940

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

Will people indefinitely keep making polls on Manifold about when we will get "AGI" without defining it?

Jun 3, 1:34 AM

150

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