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Prediction markets for Rebellions

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

59.23%chance

12762734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

669

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.83%chance

394332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2790

612

When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫

Feb 18, 3:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

203277

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2025

2024

60

20

12

7

1

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.3%chance

161101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

955

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.51%chance

27848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

911

If there is an Inside Out 3, what new emotion(s) will be featured in it?

Jul 16, 2:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22820

OptionProbability

Passion / love (or similar romantic)

Self loathing / depression / similar

Lonely

Brave

Guilty

Obsession

Schadenfreude / epicaricacy

Suspicion

Awe

Lust / horny / other sexual feeling

Curiosity

Rebellion

Intoxication

sassy / rude

Patriotism

Jealous

Suicidal

89

65

50

42

35

31

31

31

31

20

15

14

6

5

4

3

3

Will two countries led by women engage in war before 2100?

Feb 23, 4:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.08%chance

22617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

101

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025?

Apr 15, 9:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.6%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

612

16

Will the revolution be televised?

Jul 25, 1:43 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

44.52%chance

5260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?

May 26, 2:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.96%chance

8130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

133

MoistCr1TiKaL announces new major business venture by March 31, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:29 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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