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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.92%chance

617275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2261

708

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

Will the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?

May 22, 11:36 PMJan 1, 1:59 AM

16.1%chance

192343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

949

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?

Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

351860

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

United Kingdom

Spain

United States of America

India

Canada

People's Republic of China

Brazil

31

24

16

8

7

5

5

3

1

Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?

May 18, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181085

OptionProbability

Florida

Texas

South Africa

Japan

Navajo Nation

Poland

Cambodia

Italy

Ukraine

Vietnam

89

87

87

67

66

62

33

29

29

25

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

13438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

968

Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?

Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

5381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.89%chance

10272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

118

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Israel recognise civil marriages performed domestically by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36.06%chance

6160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

930

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

25.01%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

958

Will every state and territory of Australia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.42%chance

683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

84

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