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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.52%chance

576459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

940

Will Britain officially recognise Palestine as a state? 🇬🇧🇵🇸

Jan 31, 8:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

87.59%chance

553771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2257

128

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.88%chance

302714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

600

Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?

Aug 11, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.75%chance

19674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

Will Switzerland legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81%chance

14584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

51

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.59%chance

12435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

981

Will Egypt withdraw recognition of Israel by EOY 2026?

Dec 23, 10:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.21%chance

6413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

477

21

Will Czechia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.61%chance

11385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

150

By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?

Apr 23, 12:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

60.04%chance

19269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

950

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will Taiwan's government recognise a 17th Indigenous group before 2030?

Apr 10, 9:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.71%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

68

Which of Orcus, Salacia, Gonggong and Sedna will be formally recognised as dwarf planets by the IAU in 2034?

Apr 30, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Orcus

Salacia

Gonggong

Sedna

50

50

50

50

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