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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.38%chance

586509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

920

Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.98%chance

153560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

396

93

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?

Sep 23, 10:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

27908

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

India

People's Republic of China

United Kingdom

United States of America

Canada

Spain

Brazil

40

25

16

7

5

3

2

2

1

Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?

Aug 11, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.54%chance

21734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will Israel recognise a Palestinian state by 2030?

Oct 25, 6:31 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.23%chance

9670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

49

Will Switzerland legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.06%chance

14624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

91

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

13438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

968

Will Czechia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

11435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

136

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Taiwan's government recognise a 17th Indigenous group before 2030?

Apr 10, 9:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.71%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

68

Which of Orcus, Salacia, Gonggong and Sedna will be formally recognised as dwarf planets by the IAU in 2034?

Apr 30, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Orcus

Salacia

Gonggong

Sedna

50

50

50

50

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