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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.4%chance

606725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

848

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

In what year will Google or Meta release a commercial facial recognition search product?

Oct 10, 1:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93224

OptionProbability

2026 or later

2023

2024

2025

99

0

0

0

Will Norway legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.98%chance

71287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

23

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?

Sep 23, 10:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

27908

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

India

People's Republic of China

United Kingdom

United States of America

Canada

Spain

Brazil

40

25

16

7

5

3

2

2

1

Will the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?

May 22, 11:36 PMJan 1, 1:59 AM

10.38%chance

6871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1851

857

Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Jan 18, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5.87%chance

8499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

530

51

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

13438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

968

Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?

Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

37.28%chance

4331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

771

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Jan 18, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

17.24%chance

8297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

81

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

25.01%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

958

Will Israel recognise civil marriages performed domestically by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

39.78%chance

660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

991

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