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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.38%chance

586509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

920

Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.98%chance

153560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

396

93

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.05%chance

303314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

597

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?

Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

311831

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

United Kingdom

Spain

United States of America

India

Canada

People's Republic of China

Brazil

31

25

15

8

7

5

5

3

2

Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?

Aug 11, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.54%chance

21734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will Switzerland legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.06%chance

14624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

91

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.59%chance

12435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

981

Will Czechia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

11435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

136

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Jan 18, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

17.24%chance

8297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

81

Will any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?

Dec 29, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.46%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

43.86%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will Taiwan's government recognise a 17th Indigenous group before 2030?

Apr 10, 9:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.71%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

68

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