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Prediction markets for Recogni

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Dec 27, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.52%chance

576459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

940

A biological creature aesthetically recognizable as a dragon will exist on earth by 2060

Sep 27, 3:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.01%chance

303014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

396

Will Norway legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.98%chance

71287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

23

Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?

Sep 11, 9:37 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4679

OptionProbability

South Africa

Texas

Florida

Ukraine

Navajo Nation

Cambodia

Italy

Vietnam

Poland

84

83

83

45

45

41

37

33

23

Will Israel recognise a Palestinian state by 2030?

Oct 25, 6:31 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.49%chance

7578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Jan 18, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5.87%chance

8499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

530

51

By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?

Apr 23, 12:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.96%chance

21469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

818

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.59%chance

12435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

981

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Jan 18, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

17.24%chance

8297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

81

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will any state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

May 24, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.82%chance

9116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

115

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

43.86%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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