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Prediction markets for Recorded Future

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8819732

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

The Epstein Files

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

51

51

51

40

21

19

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

446446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.96%chance

335582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4065

1672

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.29%chance

134678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

339

By what year will surgical abortion be illegal across the US except in cases of risk to the life of the mother?

Jul 5, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94159

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2024

9

9

7

1

0

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

112664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2765

218

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.8%chance

81310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will the next sale of the AI.com domain be for over $70 million?

Feb 9, 11:42 PMDec 31, 11:41 PM

36.04%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.72%chance

7118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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