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Prediction markets for Recorded Future

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

8336972

OptionProbability

2026

2024

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?

Jul 27, 7:06 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

93.12%chance

479006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3679

272

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.7%chance

335082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3565

1720

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.29%chance

124453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2803

357

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113876

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

365+ days

180+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

100

62

46

46

22

0

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.66%chance

303404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

761

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

112664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2765

218

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

81263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

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