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Prediction markets for Recorded Future

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

7426233

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

50

15

12

11

8

3

0

0

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.61%chance

324875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2735

1819

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34825

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.91%chance

283328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.68%chance

6855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.1%chance

10654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

954

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

12273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

31

Will gold exceed $7,000 USD per ounce before January 1 2027

Mar 18, 5:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

8139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

50

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