RED News

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMay 1, 5:59 AM

3636485

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

Who will drive for Red Bull Racing in the opening GP of 2026?

Jun 6, 12:37 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

3811099

OptionProbability

Max Verstappen

Isack Hadjar

Sergio Perez

Daniel Ricciardo

Yuki Tsunoda

Liam Lawson

Carlos Sainz

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Feb 11, 9:49 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.61%chance

2510773

OptionVotes

YES

6103

164

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

Feb 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.12%chance

469106

OptionVotes

YES

3211

313

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Jul 4, 2:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

162322

OptionVotes

YES

2929

808

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe GC Leader Grand Tour Scheduling Conundrum 2026

Aug 5, 7:13 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

71549

OptionProbability

Florian Lipowitz starts the Tour de France

Primoz Roglic starts the Vuelta a España

Giulio Pelizzari starts the Giro d'Italia

Jai Hindley starts the Giro d'Italia

Remco Evenepoel starts the Tour de France

Florian Lipowitz starts the Vuelta a España

Giulio Pelizzari starts the Vuelta a España

Jai Hindley starts the Vuelta a España

Jai Hindley starts the Tour de France

Remco Evenepoel starts the Vuelta a España

Primoz Roglic starts the Tour de France

Primoz Roglic starts the Giro d'Italia

Giulio Pelizzari starts the Tour de France

Florian Lipowitz starts the Giro d'Italia

Remco Evenepoel starts the Giro d'Italia

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

1143

899

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 11, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.11%chance

5246

OptionVotes

YES

744

405

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Dec 5, 2:41 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM

3187

OptionProbability

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Other

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Endangered

Extinct in the Wild

Not Evaluated

Data Deficient

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 25, 3:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.23%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1003

984

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3140

OptionProbability

Endangered

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Extinct in the Wild

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

Data Deficient

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 12:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

992

RED News

Prediction markets for RED

Prediction markets for RED

Prediction markets for RED

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Who will drive for Red Bull Racing in the opening GP of 2026?

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe GC Leader Grand Tour Scheduling Conundrum 2026

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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