RED News

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMar 13, 6:59 AM

4245005

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Feb 11, 9:49 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2%chance

2811770

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

243997

OptionProbability

European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Jul 4, 2:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

162322

OptionVotes

YES

2929

808

Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Apr 29, 2:12 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

35.94%chance

161468

OptionVotes

YES

1335

749

Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?

Apr 30, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

15919

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

1143

899

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

5538

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 98

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 11, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

6296

OptionVotes

YES

794

395

Will Max Verstappen race for Red Bull Racing in whatever the opener of the 2027 season is?

Mar 15, 7:12 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

46.13%chance

11294

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 25, 3:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.23%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1003

984

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 12:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

992

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Prediction markets for RED

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Will Max Verstappen race for Red Bull Racing in whatever the opener of the 2027 season is?

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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