RED News

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMar 13, 6:59 AM

4595792

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Feb 11, 9:49 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2%chance

2811770

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62804

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Jul 4, 2:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.6%chance

162372

OptionVotes

YES

2879

810

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

40%chance

191926

OptionVotes

YES

1106

923

Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?

Apr 30, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

191821

OptionVotes

YES

2364

423

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 11, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

6296

OptionVotes

YES

794

395

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM

6215

OptionProbability

Endangered

Vulnerable

Critically Endangered

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Extinct in the Wild

Extinct

Data Deficient

Not Evaluated

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 25, 3:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.23%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1003

984

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 12:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

992

When will the Red Roses (England Rugby Women) next lose a game?

Sep 28, 8:22 AMSep 28, 8:21 AM

130

OptionProbability

1H 2026

2H 2026

1H 2027

Other

2H 2027

Will a video featuring a collaboration between Corridor Crew and Red Letter Media be posted before the end of 2028?

May 6, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

102

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Prediction markets for RED

Prediction markets for RED

Prediction markets for RED

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

When will the Red Roses (England Rugby Women) next lose a game?

Will a video featuring a collaboration between Corridor Crew and Red Letter Media be posted before the end of 2028?

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