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Prediction markets for Red Cat

Will the Cougar, a.k.a Puma (Puma concolor) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 22, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.06%chance

7522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

866

400

Will the Caracal (Caracal caracal) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 30, 6:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.09%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

697

422

Will the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 25, 11:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.94%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

747

412

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM

5195

OptionProbability

Endangered

Critically Endangered

Vulnerable

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Extinct in the Wild

Extinct

Data Deficient

Not Evaluated

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

47

37

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 30, 6:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.14%chance

5179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

595

443

Will "Catching AIs red-handed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 20, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.19%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

92

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