OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Neymar plays in a match
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
3+ penalty shootout
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump still alive at end of final match
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Trump attends match
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
Players cleat falls off their foot
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Emmanuel Macron attends match
Player tears their ACL
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Champion is unbeaten
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
2+ European countries reach top 4
20+ penalty goals
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Any host nation in quarter final
Asian player misses penalty kick
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
No red cards issued in the Final match
US goes further than Mexico
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Both teams in final have red on their flag
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Messi gets a yellow card
Over 14.5 own goals scored
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Elon Musk attends match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
France becomes finalist
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Of 6 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Freddy attends the final match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Team loses after leading 2-0
Goal scored within 1st minute
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Spain goes further than France
2 UEFA teams in final
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
VAR overturns second yellow card
Flares in stands during match in USA
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Betting scandal reported
USA player gets the red card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Winning team has a foreign manager
Team captain gets red card
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
5+ hat tricks
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Bald person gets the red card
Messi scores on every game he plays
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Canada goes further than US
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Asian player gets the red card
30+ penalty goals
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Salt Bae attending a match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Netherlands reaches half-final
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
England loses on penalties
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
King Charles attends match
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Ronaldo does not start
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Fans invade field during match
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Football is coming home?
Disruption at Iran match
15+ cards in any match
Asia team reaches semi final
Trump attends 3 or more games
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Major security incident
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
Another match with 3+ red cards
10+ goals in any match
Player bit during match
Goal scored from own half
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Player shits in the pants during match
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
All 3 host countries win the opener
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Ronaldo scores before Messi
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
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OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid
Leave it open for the upcoming GP
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
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87
OptionVotes
NO
YES
131
76
